Young Voters' 2008 Picks - New Polling
From Young Voter Strategies: A new analysis of national polls provides an early glimpse into young voters' 2008 presidential picks. Excerpts are below. See the full analysis, including tables with polling results, here (PDF) or here.
Primary Picks
General Election Match Ups
Primary Picks
"In many respects young voters are similar to older voters in their presidential preferences. Top Democratic contenders are Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Al Gore; on the other side, Rudy Guiliani, John McCain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney lead the Republican race. However, when looking at young voters’ picks a few differences stand out.
"Among Democrats, Senator Barack Obama draws stronger support from young adults than from any other age group: in both the Pew Research Center and RT Strategies polls below, young Democrats are 11 points more likely to indicate support for Obama than are respondents overall.
"Among Republicans, a second difference emerges. Initial polling indicates young adults are slightly more supportive of John McCain than are older voters."
General Election Match Ups
"A February Quinnipiac University poll asked respondents for whom they would vote in a set of general election match-ups between the current 2008 presidential front-runners.
"The poll found that, among respondents of all ages, former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani came out ahead in every match, beating all the current Democratic front-runners, while Senator John McCain came out ahead in two of three matches (Clinton, Obama) and tied in a match against John Edwards.
"However, the candidates fared quite differently among young respondents. When polled, 18-29 year olds preferred all three Democratic front-runners over Guiliani and McCain, (see tables below) indicating that young adults continue to lean Democratic as they did in 2006 - although not by as large a margin. In 2006, 18-29 year olds voted in favor of Democratic House candidates by 22 points (60-38).
"Polling for presidential elections this far in advance is, of course, to be taken with a grain of salt – much will change before the primaries and even more before the general election. However, the current contenders would do well to note their support – or lack thereof – from younger voters. Outreach works – it is not likely an accident that Barack Obama and John McCain are running ahead with young voters. Senator Obama’s campaign has done substantial youth outreach, from rallies to online organizing, and Senator McCain’s previous campaigns have incorporated considerable youth targeting. Given the recent trend of increasing young voter turnout and their sheer size – topping 42 million citizens in 2006 – any 2008 candidate should be courting and targeting this cohort now. Obama and McCain’s initial leads with this group indicate that reaching out to young voters is certainly worth it."
posted by Anonymous at 12:19 PM
12 Comments:
This article really showed the benefits of public polling. From the polls, which showed that 18-29 year old leaned in a much more liberal direction, the public's opinion maybe known. Tomorrow's future would much rather see a power shift from Republican to Democrat then allow power to remain in on of the most liberal Republicans, John McCain. However, as the article said, polling this early might not be accurate because voters are simply going by track records of the candidates. In my opinion this election will be the most impacted by the younger vote.
I have to agree with shortman in stating that this upcoming election will be mostly impacted by younger voters than ever before. Even though, as the article states, it is too early in the current stage to rely on the recent polls, it's impossible not to believe that the polls aren't foreshadowing a trend that may occur. This new wave of voters may have slightly more liberal views than those who were voting thirty years ago.
By analyzing election data one could say that because the voters of the late 1970s-80s were children of the baby boomers (voters ages 18-29 in the late 70s-80s had to have been born late 50s-60s), they espoused ideologies that were prominent in the era they were born in. That would explain the rise of the Republican Party in those decades because at the time, Republicans expressed the views of the "silent majority".
Today there may be a new trend in the making according to the polls in this article. Perhaps there is a liberal uprising of the young voters of today against the older voters of the previous generation. As the article suggests, it may be too soon to tell, but as shortman said, regardless of any polls, this election will be the most impacted by the younger vote.
-Glen A
Well I don't really think the information in this article comes as a shock. Many statistics show that people in the 18-29 age range are typically liberal. However, the 18-25 age range has the worst voter tunrout. In order for the democrats to win the '08 election they need to use the Karl Rove technique and focus on the votes they can get: minorities and young voters. Also it is not suprising that Obama is a favorite among young voters. He has a certain youth to his personality and is very charismatic which appeals to the younger crowd. The candidates need to really focus on their GOTV efforts, focusing on getting their supporters to the polls, which often times makes all the difference.
I definitely agree that this election is going to be impacted by younger voters, and that there is a definite trend among young voters loyalty. Young voters are more likely to be liberal, and today, it seems like most young citizens are on the side of change. In this election, unlike previous years, there is more use of internet campaigning, political blogs, etc., all of which appeal to younger voters. TV shows like The Daily Show and The Colbert Report appeal to young audiences as well, lending to an increase in political interest among the youngest demographic.
--Nick Carey
I think the reason voters ages 18-29 are more supportive of Barack Obama and John McCain is because they are tired of partisanship. The impeachment of Bill Clinton and the Supreme Court decision in Bush v. Gore are probably some of the first political memories of these young voters. Both these events were viewed as highly partisan by the left and even some of the right. The partisanship has continued into the 2000s, with the polarizing election of 2004 and the divisive war in Iraq. Young voters want a change.
Obama and McCain both present a kind of politics that is unifying, not polarizing. Obama's campaigning has a positive tone and he first gained national attention with a speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention that urged national unity. This is in contrast to Hillary Clinton, who is a polarizing figure that most Republicans despise. McCain has been a maverick throughout his career in the Senate, as he has gone against the Republican party line on issues like the environment, tax cuts, gay marriage, gun control, immigration, and campaign finance reform. He seems to look at each issue with an independent mind not tainted by political considerations.
---Parimal Garg
Being that many young voters have been influenced by shows like The Colbert Report and
The Daily Show is a huge reason for their political ideologies...public polling doesn't do much in determining the outcome of an election 20 months from now...there are many more people that will complete a survey to determine public opinion than there are that will actually vote in an election...then when all is said and done there will be many unsatisfied people that do not like the winner of the presidential election, typically those that didn't vote, and will fill out another survey describing their satisfaction with the new president as being non-existent...in the end it all comes down to who votes...the reason older people tend to be out voting more often is because they have retired and have less hassles in their life...younger people tend to overwhelm themselves in this day and age causing them to forget about voting because they need to have a financial report on their boss's desk by the end of the day or they lose their job to a younger, less experienced kid with some "talent".
~Joe Mikos
I definitely see it as no surprise that pre-campaign polling is showing that the voters between the ages of 18 to 26 are leaning toward the Democratic candidates. Younger voters tend to be more liberal than the older age groups of voters. They will be more supportive of many of the social issues, such as stem-cell research, gay marriage and abortion. More over is the current state of affairs regarding the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The war started over four years ago, has gone very badly and currently there is no end in sight. The Republican Party has held power for the entire time, and I believe that younger voters are realizing this, and are ready for change. That is why they are leaning toward the Democratic candidates, because they want a shift in power, which hopefully will solve the problems in the Middle East. This can be illustrated by the switch in the control of Congress during the mid-term elections. Furthermore many of the Democratic candidates are younger, and therefore may relate better to this age group.
- Matt B.
I agree with Matt B. with regards to the War against Terror effecting the way 18-29 year olds will vote in 2008. One reason may be that the war in Iraq has no end in sight, and recent events in Iran such as their nuclear program and capture of British navy personnel make it seem likely that the war will spread across the Iraqi border. These events have sparked public fear of a draft renewal, which would greatly effect young people, especially in the 18-29 range.
In addition, progress in the United States has occured when people have become more tolerant and accepting of other people. The Democratic party's support of things such as gay marriage, a woman's right to choose, pro-environment and anti-war will help the party gain young support and continue The United States' progressive trend towards greater liberty for all.
-Alex Katz
This Blog analyzes who young voters are going to vote for in the 2008 election. An excerpt in the blog claims says that young adults are more likely to vote for Barack Obama than any other group of voters. This makes sense considering younger people are known for voting liberal. The reason they support Obama over Clinton though is because Obama is new, young and different. He isn't the usual candidate and the younger crowd is attracted to someone who is willing to shake things up a little. We have known Clinton since the time of her husband's presidency and she is old and not as interesting to young adults as a half African American 47 year old. He is not as experienced as the rest of the candidates but he has shown maturity beyond his years and will receive a huge number of younger voters if nominated as the Democratic candidate. In a recent poll of 18-29 year olds, the 3 democratic frontrunners were all perferred over Guiliani and McCain
Everybody here has made some good points. I agree with most of you except on one point. As Kate said, young voters have the lowest voter turnout. I believe it is important for candidates to focus on the young voters, their impact will not be as great as those middle aged or senior citizens. As dissapointing as it may be, statistics show that young voters have not been capable so far of having a significant impact on an election. Maybe 2008 will change that...
The issue here is interesting. Young voters on the Republican side seem to have a favorable view of McCain--the oldest viable candidate. Either this means that young republicans and voters in general are more religious then their predecessors, or that young voters see McCain as more in tune with America's youth movement.
The support for Guliani is not surprising. He navigated the 9/11 crisis, he's not a Washington insider, and he's liberal on many social policies. He's a liberal republican, and will draw voters away from the Democrats.
The youth support for Obama is also not surprising. He comes off also as an outsider and he is one of the younger candidates politically.
The prospect of a Giuliani presidency is terrifying to me. He talks as if he owns 9/11, and I believe he would push the war on terror far beyond Iraq's borders if he were elected. His foreign policy advisers are dying to go to war with Iran (but not in the literal sense that our soldiers are).
While he has had some liberal stances in the past, he is trying his absolute best to come off in a favorable way towards the neocons. His authoritarian approach would be much scarier than Bush's.
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