A new generation rocks the vote in Iowa!

If the Iowa Caucus is a bellwether, a surge in turnout for the new generation of voters is in the works for the 2004 presidential election. An MSNBC report notes that 17-24 year olds may have nearly doubled their share of the vote in the Iowa Caucus compared to 2000. At the same time, the increase in turnout for these voters was not tied to Governor Dean as some pundits have predicted, but rather was a more general phenomenon���they were energized about the election in general.

The election is strong evidence that the new generation will be a classic battleground demographic for the 2004 presidential election: A voter bloc that can suddenly increase its turnout while swinging from one candidate to another. Note that an increase in 2004 of about 5% compared to the 2000 election would bring 20 million 18-30 year olds to the polls.

According to the national election pool entrance polls, 17-29 year olds were a larger share of the voting population than 30-44 year olds.

17-29 vote share 17%
30-44 vote share 15%
45-64 vote share 41%
65+ vote share 27%

At the same time, young adults gave Senator John Kerry a strong margin in the initial vote reported in the national election pool entrance polls.

Preference for 17-29 voters
Kerry: 35%
Edwards: 25%'
Dean: 20%
Gephardt: 7%