Young Voters' 2008 Picks - New Polling

From Young Voter Strategies: A new analysis of national polls provides an early glimpse into young voters' 2008 presidential picks. Excerpts are below. See the full analysis, including tables with polling results, here (PDF) or here.

Primary Picks

"In many respects young voters are similar to older voters in their presidential preferences. Top Democratic contenders are Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Al Gore; on the other side, Rudy Guiliani, John McCain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney lead the Republican race. However, when looking at young voters’ picks a few differences stand out.

"Among Democrats, Senator Barack Obama draws stronger support from young adults than from any other age group: in both the Pew Research Center and RT Strategies polls below, young Democrats are 11 points more likely to indicate support for Obama than are respondents overall.

"Among Republicans, a second difference emerges. Initial polling indicates young adults are slightly more supportive of John McCain than are older voters."

General Election Match Ups

"A February Quinnipiac University poll asked respondents for whom they would vote in a set of general election match-ups between the current 2008 presidential front-runners.

"The poll found that, among respondents of all ages, former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani came out ahead in every match, beating all the current Democratic front-runners, while Senator John McCain came out ahead in two of three matches (Clinton, Obama) and tied in a match against John Edwards.

"However, the candidates fared quite differently among young respondents. When polled, 18-29 year olds preferred all three Democratic front-runners over Guiliani and McCain, (see tables below) indicating that young adults continue to lean Democratic as they did in 2006 - although not by as large a margin. In 2006, 18-29 year olds voted in favor of Democratic House candidates by 22 points (60-38).

"Polling for presidential elections this far in advance is, of course, to be taken with a grain of salt – much will change before the primaries and even more before the general election. However, the current contenders would do well to note their support – or lack thereof – from younger voters. Outreach works – it is not likely an accident that Barack Obama and John McCain are running ahead with young voters. Senator Obama’s campaign has done substantial youth outreach, from rallies to online organizing, and Senator McCain’s previous campaigns have incorporated considerable youth targeting. Given the recent trend of increasing young voter turnout and their sheer size – topping 42 million citizens in 2006 – any 2008 candidate should be courting and targeting this cohort now. Obama and McCain’s initial leads with this group indicate that reaching out to young voters is certainly worth it."

Young voters made the difference

Congressman Joe Courtney has a lot to say about the power of young voters. He credits his razor thin election victory of just 91 votes to the rise in turnout among student voters.

Congressman lauds voting to Ellis Tech youths
By RAY HACKETT
Norwich Bulletin

DANIELSON -- The proposal on the Democratic agenda in the first 100 hours of Congress that won the most support from Republicans was the measure that cut interest rates on student college loans.

"That wasn't a coincidence," U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney, D-2nd District, told students Tuesday morning at Harvard Ellis Technical High School. "It wasn't a matter of members of Congress being nice people. It was a reaction to the impact that young people had on Congress in the last election."

Younger voters, especially those 18 to 25, turned out in higher numbers in November than in any previous elections since 18-year-olds were given the right to vote in 1972. The result was a shift in power as Democrats regained control of both chambers of Congress.

"The more you vote, the more politicians are going to pay attention to your issues," Courtney said, noting in past elections, politicians and candidate focused on issues concerning older Americans who are more likely to vote.

"But that's changing," he said. "And it is a change that is important for the future of this country."

Traditionally, 18- to 25-year-olds avoid elections, registering the lowest percentage turnout of any age group. Most young people say they don't vote because they're not convinced their vote matters.

Courtney hopes to dispel that belief, using his victory in November as an example of how important those votes are. Courtney won by 83 votes out of more than 240,000 cast -- the closest congressional race in the country in 2006. He attributes his victory to the higher turnout of young voters.

"That was pretty shocking," said Samantha D'Anna, 16, of Plainfield, a hairdressing student.

D'Anna was one of 10 students selected to pose questions to Courtney during the hourlong assembly. The topics included gas prices, education, the war in Iraq, possible reinstatement of the draft and global warming.

There also were questions on gay marriage, which Courtney said should be left to the states to decide; and dairy farming subsidies, which he supports.

The students gave Courtney high marks for his answers.

"I understood everything he was saying about the questions we asked him," D'Anna said.

Still, his point about the impact of younger voters on changing the outcome of elections surprised her.

"I didn't get it at first," added Robert Smith, 15 and a sophomore from Plainfield, "but when you think about it, it makes sense. Every person has a different way of looking at things, so I can see where one age group could have a different opinion."

"If I leave you with one thing to remember today," Courtney said, "it's this: No group is more affected by the decisions being made in Washington, D.C., than you, the young people in this country. And Congress is paying attention because of the way young people impacted this last election."

Political reform targets young voters in Maryland: I recently was invited to testify to a State Senate Committee in Maryland about a new bill introduced by Jamie Raskin, a state Senator with a long track record of championing youth engagement.

The Raskin bill would improve the state voter registration process in Maryland by allowing anyone 16 or older to register to vote, although they still can't vote until they are 18.

The point of this is to ensure that high schools can conduct effective voter registraiton drives, that the DMV can actually register all young people when they come in for the licenses, etc.

History shows that young people who are registered to vote turn out to vote. Indeed, I sometimes hear a criticism of Rock the Vote that, "you register all these young people to vote, but they don't turn out!"

That's total nonsense.

Consider the 2004 election. We went back and checked the state voter files from 2004 and found that for the young people who used our online registration tool and sent it in properly, 80% turned out to vote. 80%!

That's a bit higher, but in the same range, than the share of young people who vote if they are regsitered.

When people register to vote, they turn out to vote. Its just a fact. For more information about this, read through CIRCLE's youth voter analyses.

Now, having said that: I think one of the most urgent initiatives for political reform is requiring the state to register people to vote automatically. See the next post for developments on that front in MI and MN.

From our friends at Young Voter Strategies:

States Moving to Encourage Youth Vote

Several state officials are pushing legislation that would help expand young voters' access to and involvement in elections.

In Minnesota and Michigan, Secretaries of State Mark Ritchie and Terri Lynn Land are proposing that any citizen be automatically registered to vote when obtaining a drivers' license - including 16-year-olds, who would be "pre-registered." Upon turning 18 - which would remain the voting age - the state would then add that person to the voting rolls and send a registration card to his or her address.

The proposal could greatly increase the number of young adults registered and voting.

"If there's any time you can't keep 16-year-olds away from a Secretary of State's office, it's when they're old enough for the state's graduated driver licensing program," as the Kalamazoo Gazette put it in a recent editorial.

The Minnesota plan proposes a second change that would impact young adults, the most mobile segment of society. The proposal is to automatically update a registered voters' address when they move and file a change of address form through the Postal Service; currently, a voter must re- register with each move. Given young adults' mobility rates and research showing that voter turnout is lower for individuals who have moved in the six months prior to an election, steamlining this process could play a significant role in increasing young voter registration and turnout.

A similar idea is moving through the Maryland state legislature. Sen. Jamin Raskin (D- Montgomery) introduced a bill to allow 16-year- olds to pre-register to vote. In addition, the legislation encourages voter registration drives at Maryland high schools.

For more information, see Minnesota Secretary of State, Michigan Secretary of State, Maryland State Senate

Student think tank seeks policy papers: The Roosevelt Review, the journal of the Roosevelt Institution, a student think tank, is seeking submissions. Your chance to shine.

The fight for student voting rights continues. In Maine, some legislators are trying to ban anyone from voting from a dormitory address.

Officials doubt constitutionality of curb on student voters

AUGUSTA -- A bill that prohibits dorm-dwelling college students from voting in Maine wouldn't withstand a federal court challenge, the head of a national election administrators group said Tuesday.

CHAIRMAN KENNEDY TO HOLD HEARING ON SOARING HIGHER EDUCATION COSTS AND STUDENT DEBT

Friday, Feb 16
10AM EST
Watch the live webcast here

Washington, D.C. – On Friday, February 16 Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee will hold a hearing on the soaring costs of higher education and the enormous debt graduates now face. The hearing will focus on proposals to increase need-based aid to college students, help student borrowers better manage their debt, reform federal student loan programs, and address rising college tuition costs.

Witnesses at the hearing include Suze Orman, host of The Suze Orman Show, Tamara Draut, author of Strapped: Why America’s 20-and30-Somethings Can’t Get Ahead, Dr. Jon Oberg, former Department of Education researcher, and Dr. Sandy Baum, Senior Policy Analyst for The College Board and Professor of Economics at Skidmore College.

WHO:
Senators on the HELP Committee
Suze Orman, the Suze Orman Show;
Tamara Draut, Author;
Dr. Jon Oberg, Former Dept of Education Researcher;
Dr. Sandy Baum, Senior policy analyst for the College Board.

Watch the live webcast here

Internet voting vs. Zombie computers!

Some people advocate for voting on the Internet, but there's a lot of security concerns. Consider this note from our friends at the Electronic Privacy Information Center about the following article linked below:

Just something to think about when considering remote voting via the Internet. I know this might be far off the radar for some groups, but I did want to provide a little information on the problems with security of the Internet.

The attack described below would lend themselves very well to targeting web sites for election vote collection, or telecommunication switches that serve certain neighborhoods or communities.

The article, "Attack of the Zombie Computers Is Growing Threat", is on the New York Times, so you have to register (its free). An excerpt:

Computer security experts warn that botnet programs are evolving
faster than security firms can respond and have now come to represent
a fundamental threat to the viability of the commercial Internet. The
problem is being compounded, they say, because many Internet service
providers are either ignoring or minimizing the problem.

"It's a huge scientific, policy, and ultimately social crisis, and no
one is taking any responsibility for addressing it," said K. C.
Claffy , a veteran Internet researcher at the San Diego Supercomputer
Center.

As EPIC says, "something to think about."

In India on Valentine's Day: "Say it with vote," say the young people standing in line at polling places.

President Bush responds on student loans: Our work--and more importantly the rising frustration of younger voters---is getting noticed in Washington.

The new Democratic speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, made a 50% cut in student loan interest rates one of her highest legislative priorities. Her bill passed the House of Representatives overwhelmingly, with the highest bipartisan support for any element of the new Democratic legislative agenda.

The Senate is now taking it up, with, for example, Senator Kennedy introducing a far-reaching legislative agenda to open the doors of college opportunity as wide as possible.

Now, we're pleased to see the President responding, calling in his new budget for raising the maximum Pell Grant award by nearly 14 percent, or $550. Its a great sign that young voters are increasingly a political force in DC.

We hope the President's proposed Pell increase---as well as congressional inititiaves---won't take money from other college areas but will actually increase the amount of federal assistance to higher education. Or, as PIRG higher education project director Luke Swarthout told the Washington Post, we're not about "robbing peter to pay Pell."

New Survey Reveals Concerns Over Rap Music Among Youth

From Allhiphop.com:

The current image of rap music and rap music videos is cause for concern among Black youth, according to the Black Youth Project, a survey spearheaded under the direction of Dr. Cathy Cohen of the University of Chicago. The survey involved 1590 Black, White and Hispanic young people ages 15-25 from around the country. Survey findings released yesterday (Feb. 1) reveal that 72 percent of Black youth agree rap videos contain too many sexual references. The majority of participants agreed that rap music videos portray Black women and Black men in bad and offensive ways. Sixty-six percent of Black women are more likely than White women (55%) and Hispanic women (53%) to agree that they are portrayed in a demeaning light in rap videos. Although 57 percent of Black men feel that rap videos portray Black women in bad and offensive ways, 44 percent of them disagree that the videos portray Black men in bad and offensive ways. The results of the survey provide solid evidence concerning the impact of rap on young people, according to Dr. Cathy Cohen, one of the organizers of the survey. "This study shows us that young people are actually discerning viewers who have thoughtful insights about cultural representation," she explained. "Instead of condemning young Black people for watching rap videos, we might encourage music and television companies to provide a broader range of images for young Black people, who say that what they're seeing now is overly sexual and demeans women. This audience deserves to be paid attention to as consumers."

Rock the SAT?

We've just been informed by a friend who took a batch of sample tests that a recent SAT test included the following question:

If necessary, correct the following sentence: "Scarcely half of the registered voters in the United States showed up to vote, the Rock the Vote campaign was created to help youth understand the importance of voting."

Now RtV can safely call for abolishing the SAT test. :-)