THEY ARE SURGE VOTERS. That was our mantra throughout 2004 when people asked us what we thought young people were going to do on Election Day.
Man were we right about that.
Today we are reporting some news that is frankly...shocking. While overall youth voter turnout jumped 10 percentage points from 2000, for African Americans and Latinos, it shot through the roof.
According to a new analysis by CIRCLE, the youth voter research institute at the University of Maryland, young African American voter turnout surged 15 points from 2000. And young Latino turnout surged 21 points from 2000.
In fact, young voter turnout for African Americans and Latinos actually exceeded white voters. CIRCLE estimates that 53% of under 30 African Americans and 53% of Latinos voted, while 52% of young white, non-Latinos voted.
This is nothing short of an earthquake. Now, the data is not perfect---it is based on an exit survey. But it is the most reliable data that exists and these are the best estimates that can be made at this time.
CIRCLE also points out that these young people of color account for the large Kerry margin. Young white voters actually favored Bush by 9 points, but young African Americans chose Kerry by 77 points and young Latinos chose Kerry by 18 points.
The underlying demographic trend should cause the political consultants to run for their calculators: The youth electorate has become dramatically more diverse. In 1992, 84% of young voters were white. In 2004, this share declined to 68%. Young Latinos went from 3% of the voting population in 1992 to 13% in 2004. And, to put it bluntly, more minorities means more progressive voters.
What accounted for the dramatic surge among young people of color? We don't really have a scientific answer, but I would put heightened concerns about the war and a possibility of a new military draft at the top of the list---support for the war was always much lower among that group in the first place.
I would also bet that the large national voter registration drives among non-profit and 527 organizations had a huge impact. I heard reports that as much as half of all the voter registrations generated by these groups, many of which focused primarily in minority communities, were from young people. All those millions of dollars had an impact.
But there are more reasons---tell us what you think.
Clearly, the hip hop generation is coming into its own. The politicians had better catch up or they're going to get caught out.
Man were we right about that.
Today we are reporting some news that is frankly...shocking. While overall youth voter turnout jumped 10 percentage points from 2000, for African Americans and Latinos, it shot through the roof.
According to a new analysis by CIRCLE, the youth voter research institute at the University of Maryland, young African American voter turnout surged 15 points from 2000. And young Latino turnout surged 21 points from 2000.
In fact, young voter turnout for African Americans and Latinos actually exceeded white voters. CIRCLE estimates that 53% of under 30 African Americans and 53% of Latinos voted, while 52% of young white, non-Latinos voted.
This is nothing short of an earthquake. Now, the data is not perfect---it is based on an exit survey. But it is the most reliable data that exists and these are the best estimates that can be made at this time.
CIRCLE also points out that these young people of color account for the large Kerry margin. Young white voters actually favored Bush by 9 points, but young African Americans chose Kerry by 77 points and young Latinos chose Kerry by 18 points.
The underlying demographic trend should cause the political consultants to run for their calculators: The youth electorate has become dramatically more diverse. In 1992, 84% of young voters were white. In 2004, this share declined to 68%. Young Latinos went from 3% of the voting population in 1992 to 13% in 2004. And, to put it bluntly, more minorities means more progressive voters.
What accounted for the dramatic surge among young people of color? We don't really have a scientific answer, but I would put heightened concerns about the war and a possibility of a new military draft at the top of the list---support for the war was always much lower among that group in the first place.
I would also bet that the large national voter registration drives among non-profit and 527 organizations had a huge impact. I heard reports that as much as half of all the voter registrations generated by these groups, many of which focused primarily in minority communities, were from young people. All those millions of dollars had an impact.
But there are more reasons---tell us what you think.
Clearly, the hip hop generation is coming into its own. The politicians had better catch up or they're going to get caught out.
posted by Hans Riemer at 8:31 PM
4 Comments:
I doubt it was the Hip Hop culture.
Only 77 percent of the young black vote went to Kerry? Thats a shift showing more young black americans are conservative or disliked Kerry than their cultural seniors.
As for the draft issue mobilizing many young voters you should be patting yourself on the back for starting that myth. Glad to see you linked to a page that at least puts some of these rumors started by RTV to rest, although the idea that Charles Rangel wasn't playing partisan politics with his ridiculous bill is laughable.
Of course the one gem in your entire post, Hans, was that last bit about the "Hip Hop" culture. Seriously, do you really think that Hip Hop is the one unifying thread among the youth of America... or is it that you watch too much MTV?
In the end it is good to see more individuals within our age bracket voting, and I only pray that these numbers continue to rise through 2006 and onto 2008. It doesn't matter who these people voted for as long as the politicians come to realize they have to listen to us sooner rather than later.
Let's recap:
Bruce, Michael, and a slew of other frightened characters went on the road to condemn 43 and to praise Kerry. They spent millions to 'rock the vote' and to register voters, who they thought would vote Democrat. All of their concerts, websites, rages, books, movies, etc. had what effect on the demographics of the vote compared to the 2000 election?
None.
All of those hundreds of millions of big money contributions to left-wing 527s played a huge role in getting turnout up a few points.
Rock the Vote's scare tactics on a draft didn't hurt, either.
Click here to read more about how much more Democrats, relying primarily on hugemongous checks from ultra-wealthy individuals, raised and spent than Republicans. And that unprecedented (a use I don't use lightly) and lopsided amount of cash in the system still didn't matter in the end.
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